Evaluating CMR

Assessing CVD Risk: Traditional Approaches

Others

The UKPDS Risk Engine

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For CHD estimation, a fully parametric model combining hazards ratio and absolute events rates in a single equation was used to estimate events rates and survival probabilities. Health planners can use the UKPDS model to estimate resource use, perform power calculations in clinical trials, and estimate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness early in drug development cycles.

In comparison with previous models that do not include any measure of glycemia, an important feature of the UKPDS model is the inclusion of HBA1c as a continuous CHD risk factor. A direct causal relationship between glycemia measured by HBA1c, and CHD has not yet been proven (30), but it is important to acknowledge that a predictive relationship does exist (31, 32). The UKPDS prediction model also includes some important CHD risk factors such as blood pressure (33) and total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio (34). The UKPDS risk engine is therefore a good model for estimating CHD risk for the primary prevention of CHD in type 2 diabetic patients.

For more information, please visit the UKPDS website at http://www.dtu.ox.ac.uk/index.php?maindoc=/ukpds/.


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30. Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33). UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group. Lancet 1998; 352: 837-53.
31. Thomas EL, Brynes AE, McCarthy J, et al. Preferential loss of visceral fat following aerobic exercise, measured by magnetic resonance imaging. Lipids 2000; 35: 769-76.
32. Khaw KT, Wareham N, Luben R, et al. Glycated haemoglobin, diabetes, and mortality in men in Norfolk cohort of european prospective investigation of cancer and nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). BMJ 2001; 322: 15-8.
33. Adler AI, Stratton IM, Neil HA, et al. Association of systolic blood pressure with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 36): prospective observational study. BMJ 2000; 321: 412-9.
34. Castelli WP. Epidemiology of coronary heart disease: the Framingham study. Am J Med 1984; 76: 4-12.